Swine flu outbreaks in Europe 'will get worse', say experts REUTERS

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LONDON was on red alert today amid a warning that up to 94,000 could die if a swine flu pandemic strikes.

An emergency task force is poised to trigger a crisis plan aimed at keeping the city running even if the deadly virus takes hold.

The increased alert status came after the World Health Organisation (WHO) raised the official threat level to five, one short of a full pandemic.

According to worst-case projections, outlined in the official pandemic response plan for London, up to 94,000 people could die as a result of a severe outbreak.

And 3.25million - half the city's population - would be infected by the virus.

If London escapes the worst of a pandemic, the best case scenario would be of 7,500 deaths.

The projections suggested the boroughs most severely affected would be Ealing, with 4,235 deaths, and Barnet, with 4,113 deaths.

Planners are working on the basis of up to 2,500 flu-related deaths in a typical borough.

The plans from London’s Resilience Forum - a task force made up of political, business and emergency service leaders - include:

● Response plans "should be ready for instant implementation" for services including health, education, the military, police, transport and councils.

● London health authorities should consider preserving essential stockpiled medical supplies.

● National stockpiles of antivirals may be pre-distributed.

● A series of emergency groups meet to coordinate response to the crisis.

The organisation’s crisis plan says: “The influenza pandemic will result in a large number of deaths throughout London. This means planning for approximately 94,000 possible excess deaths.

“The aim is to minimise the possible social and economic disruption to the population in the vent of an outbreak of a pandemic.”

If a pandemic strikes, schools will be urged to close and major sports or arts events are likely to be cancelled.

London's first official case of swine flu, a 22-year-old London man from Barnet, was said to be “recovering well”in the Royal Free Hospital, Hampstead after being hit with swine flu.